Venezuela: Are the United States orchestrating a coup d'État?

Venezuela - Jan 31 2019
  • #credit risk
  • #gdp
  • #sovereign debt

Venezuela: Are the United States orchestrating a coup d'État?

Venezuela is in “a war situation”, according to Juan Guaido, the recently self-proclaimed President. “We lived in a dictatorship that broke with the constitutional order,” says Guaido in Le Figaro. A situation which justifies his taking power according to him. The 35-year-old opposition leader says there are “140 political prisoners” and “more than 1,000 politicians forced into exile”. He also recalled that c. 13% of the population had to leave the country whose GDP fell by “53% in five years, which corresponds to a situation of war”. However, the country is not (yet) officially in war.

Real GDP Growth and IMF Forecasts (YoY %)

The United States (US) White House had warned earlier that “those who try to sabotage democracy and attack Guaido will suffer the consequences,” tweeted Donald Trump's National Security Advisor, John Bolton. To further weaken Nicolas Maduro, the US brandished recently the threat of new sanctions. “There is no doubt that we are trying to cut the funds out of the scheme,” the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

It's a safe bet that if new general elections are not organized quickly, Guaido will be supported by the West. If the army were to overthrow the government, Venezuela would be in a state of civil war and the consequences could be even more disastrous than they are today. The country is on the verge of implosion and there is no doubt that the US will closely monitor the situation.

Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic Research
Source: Beyond Ratings

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