United States: cyclical bilateralism is not the solution to tomorrow's structural issues!

United States - Jun 13 2019
  • #credit risk

United States: cyclical bilateralism is not the solution to tomorrow's structural issues!

As the United States (US) shows some first signs of economic weakness, Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy is beginning to worry American companies. Indeed, the most expected recent figure for the US was the private sector ADP employment report: the American economy generated only 27,000 jobs in May, a figure significantly lower than the analysts' average forecast of 180,000 and the lowest figure for almost 10 years (since March 2010). This is a striking division by 10 from the 271,000 private job creations recorded in April, a figure revised downwards from an initial estimate of 275,000. In addition, private investment growth is starting to slow, which shows that private companies are beginning to anticipate a probable cycle reversal in the US (see Figure below). This would indicate that private sector confidence in Donald Trump's protectionist policy is beginning to fade.

Responding to tomorrow's structural challenges (climate change and structural reforms in the infrastructure, health and education sectors in particular) seems incompatible with the US President's pro-cyclical policies. Indeed, at a time when the private sector is beginning to take hold of ESG concerns and, first and foremost, environmental issues, the Trump Administration’s bilateral trade barriers will clearly not go in the direction of resolving these issues.

United Sates: Growth in job creation and investment are drying up

At the end of the day, if the cycle reversal is beginning to take shape in the US, it seems more than necessary to think now about counter-cyclical policies during the next recession in order to fully grasp the long-term challenges.

Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic Research
Source: Beyond Ratings, Datastream

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