The ECB and the Italian political situation push up government bond yields

Italia - Sep 06 2018

Evolution of 10-year bond yields since the beginning of the year (in %)

 

With the new Italian government taking office at the end of May, tensions in the European bond market have made their comeback. Moreover, the approach of the end of the ECB’s QE, scheduled for next September, adds uncertainties and thus some volatility. Indeed, in one month, the Italian 10-year bond yield skyrocketed by 117 bps, around 3%, while Spanish and Portuguese 10-year bond yields increased by 24 and 27 bps respectively. For the core countries of the Eurozone, the tightening movement was less marked, with German and French 10-year bond yields that remained relatively stable as the American and British 10-year bond yields.

At the end of the day, the formation of a coalition government in Italy that opposes everything, apart from Euroscepticism, weighs heavily on the Italian bond market. On the side of the uncertainties related to the conduct of the Eurozone monetary policy, the ECB’s meeting of June 14 will be decisive for several reasons. Markets should be set for the QE’s end and first interest rate hike should be formally addressed. Volatility is back, and for a while…

 

Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic Research  –  Sources: Beyond Ratings, Datastream

 

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