How much could United States protectionism cost?

All - Oct 18 2018

Weekly food for thought

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the trade war declared by Donald Trump could cost 1.520 billion USD. 

In the short term, these disputes will harm the interests of China in the first place. But in the long run, it is the United States who will suffer the most serious consequences. The IMF says the turmoil in this trade war may be even more acute than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. According to the Fund, global GDP could shrink by 1.9 percentage points.

Experts say the global economy has not yet fully felt the effect of United States protectionism. They predict that it will be in 2019 that international trade will face the most serious issues. The growth of the world's largest economy would be stalled from 2.5% to 1.6% in 2019, while that of the second would fall from 6.2% to 4.6%, according to charts published by the IMF. For China, this level of growth would be the lowest ever recorded since the country began to industrialise. According to the IMF, a negative reaction for the global economy could also come from uncertainties around Brexit. On the other hand, the United States, Canada and Mexico have announced a broad agreement in the aftermath of the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), removing the risk of an open trade conflict between the three countries.

 

Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic - Sources :  Beyond Ratings

 

Our latest
publications

Title
Category
Tag
Country
Date
What carbon budget for the new generations?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-04-19
Deforestation: different areas, different causes
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change - #ESG
Global
2019-04-19
China: towards a “soft cooling”?!
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP
China
2019-04-19
Cryptocurrencies, coinage, sovereignty, citizenship… & trust
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-04-19
The global picture of CO2 emissions by production segment in the EU-28
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-04-19
US suicide rate rises
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
USA
2019-04-19
Global growth expected to slow in 2019 according to the IMF
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
Global
2019-04-19
Geopolitics by Debt? The ChinAfrica relationship
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk - #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-04-19
Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Climate - #IPCC - #WMO
Global
2019-04-19
Carbon Border Tax: an order of magnitude for French consumers
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Inequality - #Paris Agreement
France
2019-04-19
United States: Is the yield curve inversion signalling an economic recession?
Analyst insight
#GDP - #Sovereign Debt
USA
2019-04-19
Italy is sinking a little deeper into the crisis!
Weekly food for thought
#GDP - #Sovereign Debt
Italy
2019-04-19
The challenge of integrating geostrategic issues in sovereign ratings
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk - #GDP - #Geopolitics - #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-04-19
For a Fistful of Resources?
Weekly food for thought
#Environment
Global
2019-04-19
+1.7% in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018 but Europe on a positive trend
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #GDP
Global
2019-04-19
In 2019, French economic growth should exceed that of Germany!
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
France
2019-04-19
Emissions and emissions trading scheme
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Environment
Global
2019-04-19
“Arctic meltdown: a point of no return”
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Environment
Global
2019-04-19
Beyond Ratings’ Sovereign ESG analysis can help identify seemingly undervalued Sovereign bond markets
Weekly food for thought
#ESG - #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-04-19
Beyond Ratings receives accreditation as a credit rating agency
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-04-19
Stranded assets: which sovereign issuers matter the most?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Environment
Global
2019-04-19
Pension reform: Order, progress and work longer
Analyst insight
#GDP
Brasil
2019-04-19
Venezuela plunged into chaos following a giant blackout!
Weekly food for thought
#Environment
Venezuela
2019-04-19
Norway: in the path to stranded assets
Weekly food for thought
#Environment - #Natural Capital
Norway
2019-04-19
Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage: applications and limitations
Analyst insight
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate
United Kingdom
2019-04-19
Is biodiversity the only ecological issue in the food sector?
Weekly food for thought
#Agriculture - #Biodiversity - #Climate - #GHG - #Greenhouse gases
Global
2019-04-19
Ocean’s Three
Weekly food for thought
#Biodiversity - #Climate - #Environment - #ESG - #IPCC - #Oceans - #SIDS
Global
2019-04-19
Whatever we think, the French economy is doing better!
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP
France
2019-04-19
First Recommendations for the EU Low Carbon Benchmarks
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Europe
2019-04-19
Hydrogen: would it pass a change of scale?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
France, Canada
2019-04-19
A pause in the normalization or tightening cycle of monetary policy, but until when?
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk - #GDP
USA
2019-04-19
Argentina: The hard task to stabilize the Peso and control inflation
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP
Argentina
2019-04-19
Factoring ESG in sovereign credit analysis: recent oil-related issues in Saudi Arabia and Mexico illustrate the challenge of capturing SG
Analyst insight
Mexico, Saudi Arabia
2019-04-19
The weight of energy in the political transition in Mexico: moving backward to the future
Analyst insight
Mexico
2019-04-19
Intense news flow over energy resources in international relations calls for upgrade of risk methodologies
Analyst insight
Senegal, Mauritania
2019-04-19
The need to go beyond the 2° rationale
Analyst insight
France, Egypt
2019-04-19
The tutelary value of carbon, a metric to follow?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate
France
2019-04-19
Germany needs a massive stimulus!
Weekly food for thought
#GDP - #Sovereign Debt
Germany
2019-04-19
Malthusianism: a taboo about to be broken?
Weekly food for thought
#Environment - #ESG
Global
2019-04-19
Natural Resources versus Technology in National Strategic Interests: Crossing Views on France and South Africa
Analyst insight
#GDP - #Natural Capital - #Sovereign Debt
South Africa, France
2019-04-19
United States vs Mexico: no wall but a fence!
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-04-19
Expenditure spent on food linked to exposure to climate change?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-04-19
The influence of fossil fuel reserves on energy intensity of transport
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change - #Environment - #ESG
Global
2019-04-19
Social Cohesion in troubled times – On some blind spots of growth and inequality interactions
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-04-19
Climate Change: the riskiest risk?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate
Global
2019-04-19
After “The Darjeeling Limited”: “The Lifeline Express”
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
India
2019-04-19
After “The Darjeeling Limited”: “The Lifeline Express”
Weekly food for thought
India
2019-04-19
G3: Towards negative real interest rates, for a long time!
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP
USA, Japan, European Union
2019-04-19
Tailings dams as an embodiment of environmental liabilities and the complexity of the transition
Analyst insight
#Environment
Brazil
2019-04-19
System Costs: some renewables costs to bear in mind when analysing sovereign potential
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #GDP - #Paris Agreement - #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-04-19
SAMOA Pathway: the final stretch to the mid-term review
Weekly food for thought
#Climate - #Environment - #Paris Agreement
Small Island Developing States, Global, Barbados, Fiji
2019-04-19
Venezuela: Are the United States orchestrating a coup d'État?
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP - #Sovereign Debt
Venezuela
2019-04-19
Climate Transition: An Unpriced Risk?
Analyst insight
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Credit Risk
Global
2019-04-19
Climate Transition: an unpriced risk?
Analyst insight
Global
2019-04-19
The costs of climate change: Which curve to follow?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate
Global
2019-04-19
How can 26 people own the same as 3.8 billion people who make up the poorest half of humanity?
Weekly food for thought
#ESG - #GDP
Global
2019-04-19
Real social movements have real economic impacts
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #GDP
Global
2019-04-19
Will the Brazilian sugar industry carry on its sweet dreams?
Analyst insight
#Biodiversity - #Environment - #Natural Capital
Brazil
2019-04-19
Shutdown becomes the longest in United States’ history
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-04-19
The oil trade balance of the major regions
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-04-19
Dear European mink, we wish you a happy new year…it could be your last one
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-04-19
Fed’s monetary policy: after the QE, the QT!
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk - #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-04-19
Weekly Digest Special Edition 2018 in Review
Analyst insight
#Carbon/Climate Change - #Credit Risk - #ESG - #Natural Capital
Global
2019-04-19
Automobile Industry: Slamming the Brakes on CO2 Emissions
Analyst insight
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change
Europe
2019-04-19
Is our future in the hands of justice?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Paris Agreement
France
2019-04-19
Wow! Is Eurozone inflation really rising?
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk - #Sovereign Debt
Europe
2019-04-19
Utility creditworthiness, a risk on the electricity supply
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
AAA OR NOT AAA?
Analyst insight
Global
2019-04-19
All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights…really!?
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
The French social shift will cost EUR 10 Bn!
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-04-19
EU consensus on green finance?
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change - #ESG
Global
2019-04-19
What lies behind gender pay gaps?
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
Will the Italian government give in to the European Commission?
Weekly food for thought
Italy
2019-04-19
Climate change, central banking and inflation: the energy conundrum
Analyst insight
Global
2019-04-19
Overview of Climate Finance Flows
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
Violence against women: a worldwide cultural concern
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
Mitigating agricultural emissions: are cows the cash cow of climate mitigation?
Analyst insight
#Biodiversity - #Climate - #Environment - #Natural Capital - #Paris Agreement
Global
2019-04-19
United States GDP stays on track for the third quarter!
Weekly food for thought
United States
2019-04-19
Italy is not afraid of the EU on its budget!
Weekly food for thought
Italy
2019-04-19
The emergence of cumulative climate risks
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
Beyond Ratings releases its updated sovereign ESG scoring tool
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
The Arab Spring: ill winds of change or birth of nations ?
Analyst insight
Middle East & North Africa
2019-04-19
The Lithium market, upcoming tensions
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
IEA: for a coal phase-out?
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
National Carbon Reduction Commitments: Identifying the Most Consensual Burden Sharing
Research note
#Carbon - #Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Paris Agreement
Global
2019-04-19
It's heavy to carry 35 kg every day...
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
The Big Blue
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
United States midterm elections: Donald Trump will have to cohabitate!
Weekly food for thought
United States
2019-04-19
Can we foster social mobility to reinforce democracy?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
An Update on Mark Carney
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change - #Climate - #Credit Risk
England
2019-04-19
For clean air, go to the Pacific.
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-04-19
Germany: inflation at its highest since 2012!
Weekly food for thought
Germany
2019-04-19
The Financial Markets and Bolsonaro Romance
Analyst insight
Brazil
2019-04-19
Social acceptability or financial cost: do we need to make waste incinerators fancy?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
A newly born Human Capital Index: One more?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Should we fear the worst for Italian debt?
Weekly food for thought
Italia
2019-04-19
The harder they come, the harder they fall…
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Are tax havens becoming a financial hub for environmentally harmful activities?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Climate Finance and Climate Emergency: Same temporality?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
How much could United States protectionism cost?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
How are investors addressing article 173 for the sovereign asset class ?
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Canada’s carbon tax: Competitiveness first?
Weekly food for thought
Canada
2019-04-19
Tears of blood in our cell phones?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
As expected, the IMF is still lagging…
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Climate change concerns in Sweden
Analyst insight
Sweden
2019-04-19
Cities’ Pledge for Buildings
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
How to integrate SDGs in corporates: a brainteaser?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Italian government interest rates under pressure!
Weekly food for thought
Italia
2019-04-19
Disappearing Wetlands
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
80% of Chinese foreign investment in the energy sector is in fossil energies
Weekly food for thought
China
2019-04-19
Is road freight decoupling from GDP per capita growth in China?
Weekly food for thought
China
2019-04-19
The Fed is more optimistic than ever!
Weekly food for thought
USA
2019-04-19
Under The Wire
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Has the mystery of CFC-11 emissions been solved?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Feeding the world in a warmer climate: a terrible scissor effect
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Inflation climbs in the United Kingdom!
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-04-19
Limits of development: Is there an antagonism between environmentalism and human progress?
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Are ESG factors structural determinants of economies?
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Floods take a growing toll on UK economy
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-04-19
Undernourishment and climate change: a new signal
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Emerging Market currencies in turmoil…
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
An alternative to standard classifications: the ESG classification
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Allocation methodology of national climate budgets
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Effects of the integration of “Energy-Climate-Natural Resources” determinants in the country risk methodology
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Can we really close the mines?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
A quite dishonest ESG assessment of Roland Garros
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
The ECB and the Italian political situation push up government bond yields
Weekly food for thought
Italia
2019-04-19
Social Performance and States Economic Growth
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Climate risk uncertainties: “better to be approximately right than precisely wrong”
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Inequality, Human Capital and Growth
Research note
All
2019-04-19
In the eye of the storm
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Parental leaves: baby-steps towards more equality
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
FIFA World Cup in Russia: a tremendous cost…
Weekly food for thought
Russia
2019-04-19
Implications of the IMF arrangement with Argentina
Analyst insight
Argentina
2019-04-19
A quick look at the diversity of financial intermediary roles
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Is Bitcoin an ESG nightmare?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
ECB monetary policy: not surprisingly?!
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-04-19
Illegal drugs in the GDP: short-term gain but long-term loss
Analyst insight
European Union
2019-04-19
It is mid-year and already 78 countries have reached their overshoot day
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
S&P upgrades Greece debt rating to B+
Analyst insight
Greece
2019-04-19
The “Waste Road” is changing
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
How ESG Can Improve Sovereign Yield Performance Analysis
Research note
All
2019-04-19
Demography in the European Union: a debt trap to come?
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-04-19
How To Put a Price on Carbon
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Is Organic Honey the New Cuban Cigar?
Weekly food for thought
Cuba
2019-04-19
World Indebtedness: A Red Flag for the World Bank
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Greece’s Debt Due: A Modern Sisyphus
Analyst insight
Greece
2019-04-19
E S or G: What do European investors have to say about it?
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-04-19
The Montagne d’Or Project: a real gold mountain?
Weekly food for thought
French Guyana
2019-04-19
Did Russia dump all its U.S. Treasuries in May?
Weekly food for thought
#Sovereign Debt
Russia
2019-04-19
Only dead fish go with the flow… together with plastic
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Stranded fossil fuel assets: winners and losers
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
MethaneLeaks: a new world scandal?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
Inflation in Venezuela will be 1,000,000% by the end of 2018!!!
Weekly food for thought
Venezuela
2019-04-19
Lithium-ion batteries, a difficult reality?
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
The UK has run out of liquefied CO2!
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-04-19
Overshoot Day trends: good news or bad news?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
France: Inflation at its highest level since 2012!
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-04-19
Summertime, and the beaches are… disappearing
Analyst insight
All
2019-04-19
Effort sharing to reach 2030 emission targets: paying their fair share
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-04-19
Summer 2018: On the highway to hell?
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-04-19
France Growth target lowered to 1.7% for 2019
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-04-19
Venezuela: A desperate attempt to regain confidence…
Analyst insight
Venezuela
2019-04-19
See more