According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the trade war declared by Donald Trump could cost 1.520 billion USD.
In the short term, these disputes will harm the interests of China in the first place. But in the long run, it is the United States who will suffer the most serious consequences. The IMF says the turmoil in this trade war may be even more acute than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. According to the Fund, global GDP could shrink by 1.9 percentage points.
Experts say the global economy has not yet fully felt the effect of United States protectionism. They predict that it will be in 2019 that international trade will face the most serious issues. The growth of the world's largest economy would be stalled from 2.5% to 1.6% in 2019, while that of the second would fall from 6.2% to 4.6%, according to charts published by the IMF. For China, this level of growth would be the lowest ever recorded since the country began to industrialise. According to the IMF, a negative reaction for the global economy could also come from uncertainties around Brexit. On the other hand, the United States, Canada and Mexico have announced a broad agreement in the aftermath of the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), removing the risk of an open trade conflict between the three countries.
Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic - Sources : Beyond Ratings