Global growth expected to slow in 2019 according to the IMF

Global - Apr 11 2019
  • #gdp

Global growth expected to slow in 2019 according to the IMF

According to the latest World Economic Outlook forecasts of April, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2019, down by 0.2 percentage point (pp) from January's forecast (-0.4 pp lower than last October’s forecast), after the +3.6% achieved in 2018. Virtually all countries and regions have seen their growth forecasts lowered: United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Latin America, Middle East, etc. The slowdown is now synchronized affecting “70% of the world economy,” said the IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath. In the United States, where growth is expected to fall to +2.3% (-0.2 pp) after +2.9% last year, the institution notes that the effects of measures to stimulate the economy are fading away. In the Eurozone, the confidence of households and businesses has eroded. Germany, whose growth could lose 0.5 pp to +0.8%, sees the production of its automotive sector strongly disrupted by new pollution emissions standards. In Italy, where growth could fall to +0.1% (-0.5 pp), investments have also fallen. The United Kingdom is facing its difficult exit from the European Union., and its economy is expected to fall to +1.2% (-0.3 pp). In Latin America, the growth of the second-largest economy, Mexico, was sharply down (-0.5 pp) to +1.6%, “reflecting the changes in policy perception” of the new government, notes the IMF. Argentina, another major economy in the region that has obtained a program of financial assistance from the IMF, will remain in recession in the first half before an expected recovery in the second half thanks to a rebound in agricultural production. Venezuela, ravaged by a political and economic crisis, continues to sink into the recession that could reach -10% in 2020, “a significant weight for the region,” the IMF admits.

While the IMF does not see a global recession in the short term, “many economies are not resilient enough,” warned Christine Lagarde, urging countries to prepare for the next recession by erecting fiscal barriers of protection and adopting necessary reforms while the economy is still doing relatively well. What is certain is that the world economy is slowing down and that is normal after one of the longest periods of economic expansion, especially in the United States. But growth through debt should not hide the reality. This time, the slowdown and thus the recession could be hard and globally synchronous. The affected countries’ creditworthiness would then be undermined in the coming years.

Julien Moussavi, Head of Economic Research
Source: Beyond Ratings, IMF

Weekly digest publications:

Geopolitics by Debt? The ChinAfrica relationship

Analyst insight
Global
Apr 10 2019
See publication

US suicide rate rises

Weekly food for thought
USA
Apr 11 2019
See publication

The global picture of CO2 emissions by production segment in the EU-28

Weekly food for thought
Global
Apr 11 2019
See publication

Our latest
publications

Title
Category
Tag
Country
Date
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Research note
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
France
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #Environment
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
France
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk
United States
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Environment
Northern Area
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk
Peru
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
World
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk
France
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk #France
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
Europe
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #ESG
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
Europe, USA
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
France
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Environment
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
China
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
USA
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Climate #IPCC #WMO
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Inequality #Paris Agreement
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP #Sovereign Debt
Italy
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk #GDP #Geopolitics #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Environment
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #GDP
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Environment
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Environment
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Environment
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#GDP
Brasil
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Environment
Venezuela
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Environment #Natural Capital
Norway
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate
United Kingdom
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Agriculture #Biodiversity #Climate #GHG #Greenhouse gases
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Biodiversity #Climate #Environment #ESG #IPCC #Oceans #SIDS
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
France, Canada
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
Argentina
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
France, Egypt
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#GDP #Sovereign Debt
Germany
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Environment #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#GDP #Natural Capital #Sovereign Debt
South Africa, France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #Environment #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #Climate
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#ESG
India
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
USA, Japan, European Union
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #GDP #Paris Agreement #Sovereign Debt
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Climate #Environment #Paris Agreement
Small Island Developing States, Global, Barbados, Fiji
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP #Sovereign Debt
Venezuela
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Credit Risk
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #GDP
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Biodiversity #Environment #Natural Capital
Brazil
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Credit Risk #Sovereign Debt
United States
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon/Climate Change #Credit Risk #ESG #Natural Capital
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Paris Agreement
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Credit Risk #Sovereign Debt
Europe
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #ESG
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
#Biodiversity #Climate #Environment #Natural Capital #Paris Agreement
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
United States
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Italy
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Middle East & North Africa
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Research note
#Carbon #Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Paris Agreement
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
United States
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Carbon/Climate Change #Climate #Credit Risk
England
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Global
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Germany
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Brazil
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Italia
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Canada
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Sweden
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Italia
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
USA
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Research note
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Russia
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Argentina
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
European Union
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Greece
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Cuba
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
Greece
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
French Guyana
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
#Sovereign Debt
Russia
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
Venezuela
2019-12-09
Analyst insight
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
United Kingdom
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
European Union
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
All
2019-12-09
Weekly food for thought
France
2019-12-09

Let's keep in touch!

This field is required
Invalid email

Register to our newsletter to be the first to hear about ...

By submitting this form, you consent to receiving email communications from Beyond Ratings. Beyond Ratings will update your email preferences and hold your details in its contact database. For more information on how Beyond Ratings uses your data, see our Privacy Policy.

Get started

More investors are choosing Beyond Ratings' proprietary ESG-augmented financial metrics to gain a 360° view of company and country ESG performance.