Climate Transition: an unpriced risk?
“I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind.” (Lord Kelvin, 1824-1907)
Quantifying Climate Transition Risk: A First Approach with Climate Debt
In December 2018, the OFCE published "An Explorative Evaluation of the Climate Debt". The authors provide a preliminary quantified approach of the climate transition risk in monetary terms for EU countries.
Looking for a Sustainable Path
Dividing the graph below into quadrants, we can identify the relative positions of countries regarding both financial and climate transition sustainability:
- A: countries with high financial sustainability but on an unsustainable climate transition path;
- B: countries with high financial unsustainability and on an unsustainable climate transition path;
- C: countries with high financial sustainability and on a sustainable climate transition path;
- D: countries with high financial unsustainability and on a sustainable climate transition path.
Unfortunately, no countries within the sample can be defined as being on a sustainable path from both a financial and in terms of a climate transition perspective. Germany’s case is particularly interesting as it is the least-indebted country in financial terms, but it will face high degrees of climate transition risks when moving towards a lower-carbon economy.
An Unpriced Risk
As the graph below indicates, there does not appear to be any relationship between bond yields and climate debt. Thus, it seems that climate transition risks are actually unpriced or at least mispriced.
- A: countries with high government bond yields but on a sustainable climate transition path;
- B: countries with high government bond yields and on an unsustainable climate transition path;
- C: countries with low government bond yields and on a sustainable climate transition path;
- D: countries with low government bond yields but on an unsustainable climate transition path.
Countries in the C area are then safer compared to countries in the D area relative to climate transition risks. Regarding the climate transition risk only, it would then be most valuable to invest in France and Spain rather than the United Kingdom and Germany. A 2°C compliant investor could then consider switching from German to French bonds in its portfolio.
Improving Financial Markets Information
Regarding the mispricing of climate transition risks, there is a need for improved financial markets information. The OFCE’s work on climate debt is a first step, as a quantitative indicator is needed in order to assess this emerging risk. We could also consider using a social cost of carbon in order to measure this climate debt rather than cost of adjustment, the first being a notion more widely shared. However, research is still needed in order to evaluate and investigate the macro-financial impacts of this risk. Will this risk lead some governments to default in the future? What about the case of corporates? These questions need to be addressed, and quickly!
Thomas Lorans, Economist
Sources: Beyond Ratings, OFCE, IMF, Datastream